Sunday, May 31, 2020

“Corona shock hits economy to the core”

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Bunprecedented slump, but not a complete crash: The most important economic policy advisory body of the federal government expects a significant decline in economic performance due to the corona pandemic, but remains significantly more optimistic than other economists.

This was announced on Monday by the expert council, also known as “Wirtschaftsweise”, when a 111-page special report was published. Estimates such as those of the Munich Ifo Institute, according to which the German gross domestic product (GDP) could shrink by up to 20 percent this year, did not want to be followed by the three-member council after the departure of Isabel Schnabel and Christoph Schmidt.

In their report, Lars Feld, Achim Truger and Volker Wieland outline the effects of the corona shock on the German economy in three scenarios: All three have in common that the crisis is reflected in the emerging economic recovery in – the January values ​​for production, sales and Incoming orders in industry had indicated strong growth for the first quarter of 2020 – had “abruptly” interrupted and a recession in the first half of the year “will now be unavoidable”.

In the first and most likely “base scenario”, the experts expect GDP to decline by 2.8 percent this year. This occurs when the measures to contain the virus epidemic take effect quickly and the economic and political situation normalizes again over the summer. For 2021, they then expect a healthy plus of 3.7 percent.

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