Sunday, July 12, 2020

Italian GDP down 4.7% in the first quarter, -4.8% on the year – Economy

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Coronavirus hits the Italian economy: GDP in the first quarter of 2020 fell by 4.7% on the previous quarter and by 4.8% on the same period last year. Istat communicates this in the preliminary estimate, explaining that the data is correct for the calendar effects and is seasonally adjusted. This is an expected figure, but actually better than that estimated by the government in the Def (-5.5%), as well as those disclosed by France and Spain.

The change in GDP acquired for 2020 from the figure for the first quarter is -4.9% and is the result that would occur in the absence of further changes until the end of the year.

“The preliminary estimate of the PI – explains Istat – is affected by the obstacles posed by the ongoing health emergency to the collection of basic data, which constitute the input for the elaboration of the national accounts. Corrective actions have been developed which have thwarted the statistical effects and made it possible to process and disseminate the data relating to the first quarter of 2020. As usual, the estimate released will be subject to revision in the forthcoming releases. These revisions could be of a greater extent than normal “. There decline in GDP “is of an entity never recorded since the beginning of the period of observation of the current historical series which begins in the first quarter of 1995 “.” GDP has undergone an exceptional contraction induced by the economic effects of the health emergency and by containment measures “. of Italian GDP in the first quarter “is the summary of a decrease in added value in all the main production components.

On the demand side, there are large negative contributions both from the national component (gross of inventories) and from the net foreign component. “The first quarter of 2020 had the same number of working days compared to the previous quarter and a working day in more than in the first quarter of 2019.

Eurozone in the first quarter of 2020 the adjusted GDP of seasonal variations fell by 3.8% in the eurozone and by 3.5% in the EU compared to the previous quarter, according to Eurostat’s estimate. It is the most important drop since the beginning of the time series in 1995. In the fourth quarter of 2019, GDP had increased by 0.1% in the eurozone and 0.2% in the EU. Compared to the first quarter of 2019, GDP recorded a drop of 3.3% in the eurozone and 2.7% in the EU after increasing by + 1.0% and + 1.3% respectively in the previous quarter.

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